Next Chancellor of Germany before 2028?
7 live outcomes · highest priced: No Next Chancellor before 2028 at 67% · first close Jan 1, 2030 · $139.9K total volume
About this event
This event tracks who will become the next Chancellor of Germany prior to 2028, following Friedrich Merz. Markets correspond to specific potential successors alongside an outcome for no transition occurring before the deadline.
How the outcomes relate
The event consists of candidate-specific markets and a catch-all outcome for no transition occurring in time. Because the market resolves to the single next individual who assumes the office, at most one outcome can resolve Yes.
How it resolves
A market resolves to the next individual (other than Friedrich Merz) who is elected Chancellor by the Bundestag and appointed by the Federal President. Acting or caretaker Chancellors do not count. If no such Chancellor takes office or Friedrich Merz is re-elected next by December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET, the event resolves to 'No Next Chancellor before 2028'. Resolution is determined using official information from the Bundestag and the German Federal Government, or a consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- Resolution deadline: — December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET
Resolution source
Official information from the Bundestag and the Federal Government of Germany, or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
| Outcome | Price | 24h | Gotcha risk | Tradability | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Next Chancellor before 2028 | 67% | ±0 | Low | High | |
| Hendrik Wüst | 14% | ±0 | Low | Med | |
| Markus Söder | 6% | ▼ 1 | Low | Med | |
| Alice Weidel | 5% | ±0 | Low | Low | |
| Boris Pistorius | 4% | ±0 | Low | Med | |
| Carsten Linnemann | 3% | ▼ 2 | Low | Low | |
| Felix Banaszak | <1% | ±0 | Low | Med | |
| Heidi Reichinnek | <1% | ±0 | Low | Low | |
| Jens Spahn | — | — | Not rated | — | |
| Tino Chrupalla | — | — | Not rated | — | |
| Lars Klingbeil | — | — | Not rated | — | |
| Katharina Dröge | — | — | Not rated | — | |
| Sahra Wagenknecht | — | — | Not rated | — |