Watch for: The market title broadly asks about an Iranian leadership change, but the specific rules hinge entirely on whether Mojtaba Khamenei ceases…
Independent analytics for Polymarket
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Brierpoint reads the resolution rules, checks the liquidity and shows why the price moved, for Polymarket's most active markets. Free, no account needed.
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Prices from Polymarket · Not affiliated with Polymarket · Analytics, never advice
Markets
Howard Lutnick out as Secretary of Commerce by December 31?
48%chanceSince Nov 12▲ +9 ptsYes48¢No53¢Gotcha medium · 2 of 4 flaggedResolverExceptions▲ +15 pts · 24hWill Iran sabotage undersea internet cables by December 31?
11%chance7 days↔ ±0 ptsYes11¢No89¢Gotcha medium · 4 of 4 flaggedResolverTimingWordingExceptionsJensen Huang divorce by December 31, 2026?
19%chanceSince Nov 10▲ +8 ptsYes19¢No82¢Gotcha medium · 2 of 4 flaggedResolverWording▲ +2 pts · 24hStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
6%chance7 days▼ −4 ptsYes6¢No95¢Gotcha medium · 1 of 4 flaggedExceptionsUS strike on Cuba by December 31?
10%chance7 days▲ +2 ptsYes10¢No91¢Gotcha medium · 3 of 4 flaggedResolverTimingExceptionsPete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?
16%chance7 days▼ −29 ptsYes16¢No85¢Gotcha medium · 2 of 4 flaggedResolverExceptions▲ +1 pts · 24hUFC 334: Kevin Holland vs. Uroš Medic (Welterweight, Main Card)
41%chanceSince Nov 11▼ −2 ptsYes41¢No60¢Gotcha low · nothing flaggedClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
2%chance7 days▼ −1 ptsYes2¢No98¢Gotcha low · nothing flagged
What Brierpoint adds to every market
Gotcha risk
Markets can resolve against the obvious reading. We check four ways it happens (who resolves it, timing, wording and exceptions) before you put money on it.
Tradability
A price you can't trade at isn't much of a price. We measure the order book near the middle, so you know whether you can get in and out.
Why it moved
When a price jumps, we show how it traded (how many wallets, which side, how fast) and a possible driver from the news. Possible, never certain.
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