Prediction markets, read properly
Every market has rules determining exactly what counts as YES or NO. Brierpoint analyzes those rules before resolution and flags wording, timing and resolver risks that could matter.
Free · no wallet required · analytics & education, never trading advice
Closes Jun 30, 2027
Data: Polymarket · updated Sep 14, 10:47 AM UTC
Spot the traps most traders never read
Objective, measurable analysis
Plain-English breakdowns
See and improve your accuracy
Illustrative analysis — not a live market
Every market resolves on wording most traders never read. Brierpoint reads it on all of them and tells you where the resolver has room to move.
The rules resolve on real GDP growth “as reported by the BEA,” but never say which report. Revisions of 0.4 points between estimates are routine, and the market closes the day the advance estimate lands — the one figure most likely to be revised.
Illustrative previews — not live on the homepage
Flags resolution-rule traps — ambiguous wording, resolver discretion, timing risk — before you commit to a number.
Shows whether the order book is deep enough that large orders won’t move the price against you.
Links price moves to cited sources — and says “no clear catalyst identified” when the evidence isn’t there.
Illustrative — scoring ships in a later phase
The Brier score rewards being right and being appropriately confident. 0.000 is perfect, 0.250 is a coin flip, and hedging can’t game it.
A confident miss costs 0.504. Scores average across every resolved forecast — one bad call is visible and survivable.
The standard scoring rule for probabilistic forecasts.
The measure used to benchmark forecasting models against one another.
Separates being right from getting lucky.
Example curve — not anyone’s record
The dashed line is perfect calibration: forecasts made at 70% resolve YES about 70% of the time. Points below it mean overconfidence, points above it underconfidence.
Example profile — no records exist yet
Every forecast timestamped before resolution. Public, permanent and impossible to edit after the fact.
Profiles open once forecasting ships.
Coming in a later phase
Community signals appear only after 50 forecasters lock in on a market. We never show below-threshold data, and we never fake it.
One email, every Friday. What moved, why, and what the crowd saw first.
The weekly digest launches with the product.
Prediction markets let people trade on the probability of real-world events. A price of 64¢ roughly means the market thinks an event is 64% likely. But a price alone hides three things: what the resolution rules actually count as YES, whether the posted price survives a modest trade, and why it last moved.
Brierpoint is an analytics and education layer for these markets. It explains resolution rules in plain language, scores their ambiguity, and measures tradability. Planned features attribute price moves to cited sources and let anyone log forecasts and build a verified record. Nothing here is trading or financial advice.
Clearer rules, stronger context, and a more honest view of the price.