Geopolitics markets
313 live markets · prices from Polymarket · Gotcha risk and tradability on every market card
Live Geopolitics markets313of Polymarket's most active
Moved ≥ 5 pts, 24h35▲ 14 up · ▼ 21 down
Most traded, 24h · among the markets below
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$284.5K
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?$121.2K
- Xi Jinping out before 2027?$101.6K
Biggest moves, 24h
- US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by November 15?▼ −18 pts → 36%
- Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by December 31, 2027?▲ +12 pts → 42%
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?▼ −11 pts → 80%
- Iran full airspace closure by December 31?▲ +11 pts → 26%
- Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by November 30, 2026?▼ −9 pts → 10%
US strike on Cuba by December 31?
10%chance7 days▲ +2 ptsYes10¢No91¢Gotcha medium · 3 of 4 flaggedResolverTimingExceptionsWill Iran sabotage undersea internet cables by December 31?
11%chance7 days↔ ±0 ptsYes11¢No89¢Gotcha medium · 4 of 4 flaggedResolverTimingWordingExceptionsWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
8%chance7 days▼ −5 ptsYes8¢No93¢Gotcha medium · 2 of 4 flaggedResolverWordingStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
6%chance7 days▼ −4 ptsYes6¢No95¢Gotcha medium · 1 of 4 flaggedExceptionsXi Jinping out before 2027?
2%chance7 days↔ ±0 ptsYes2¢No98¢Gotcha medium · 4 of 4 flaggedResolverTimingWordingExceptionsWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
2%chance7 days↔ ±0 ptsYes2¢No98¢Gotcha medium · 3 of 4 flaggedResolverWordingExceptionsWill the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
3%chance7 days↔ ±0 ptsYes3¢No97¢Gotcha medium · 2 of 4 flaggedResolverWordingPete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?
16%chance7 days▼ −29 ptsYes16¢No85¢Gotcha medium · 2 of 4 flaggedResolverExceptions▲ +1 pts · 24hWill China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
8%chance7 days▼ −1 ptsYes8¢No93¢Gotcha medium · 3 of 4 flaggedResolverWordingExceptionsStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?
2%chance7 days▼ −2 ptsYes2¢No98¢Gotcha medium · 1 of 4 flaggedExceptionsWill China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?
3%chance7 days▼ −2 ptsYes3¢No97¢Gotcha medium · 3 of 4 flaggedResolverWordingExceptionsZelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?
3%chance7 days▼ −1 ptsYes3¢No97¢Gotcha medium · 2 of 4 flaggedResolverExceptionsKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?
3%chance7 days▼ −2 ptsYes3¢No97¢Gotcha medium · 2 of 4 flaggedResolverWordingWill the Iranian regime fall by June 30, 2027?
9%chance7 days▼ −5 ptsYes9¢No91¢Gotcha medium · 2 of 4 flaggedResolverWordingTrump, Putin, and Xi seen together before 2027?
95%chance7 days▲ +6 ptsYes95¢No5¢Gotcha medium · 1 of 4 flaggedResolverUNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31?
6%chance7 days▼ −4 ptsYes6¢No94¢Gotcha medium · 2 of 4 flaggedResolverWordingWill China blockade Taiwan in 2026?
2%chance7 days↔ ±0 ptsYes2¢No98¢Gotcha medium · 2 of 4 flaggedResolverWordingDutch House of Representatives dissolved in 2026?
9%chanceSince Nov 12▼ −6 ptsYes9¢No91¢Gotcha low · 1 of 4 flaggedResolverKim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?
2%chance7 days↔ ±0 ptsYes2¢No98¢Gotcha medium · 3 of 4 flaggedResolverWordingExceptionsWill the Iranian regime fall before 2028?
17%chance7 days▼ −6 ptsYes17¢No83¢Gotcha medium · 2 of 4 flaggedResolverWordingModi out by December 31, 2026?
2%chance7 days↔ ±0 ptsYes2¢No98¢Gotcha low · 2 of 4 flaggedResolverExceptionsIran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?
3%chance7 days▼ −2 ptsYes3¢No97¢Gotcha medium · 2 of 4 flaggedResolverExceptionsWill Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?
9%chance7 days▲ +1 ptsYes9¢No92¢Gotcha low · 1 of 4 flaggedExceptionsForeign intervention in Gaza by December 31?
7%chance7 days▼ −1 ptsYes7¢No94¢Gotcha medium · 3 of 4 flaggedResolverWordingExceptionsWill Saudi airspace be closed by December 31?
9%chance7 days▲ +1 ptsYes9¢No92¢Gotcha medium · 2 of 4 flaggedExceptionsResolverWill Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?
9%chance7 days▲ +2 ptsYes9¢No91¢Gotcha low · 1 of 4 flaggedResolverIran Nuke before 2027?
2%chance7 days▼ −1 ptsYes2¢No98¢Gotcha medium · 2 of 4 flaggedResolverWordingFrance declares state of emergency by December 31, 2026?
2%chance7 days▼ −4 ptsYes2¢No98¢Gotcha low · nothing flaggedWill Xi meet with Takaichi by December 31, 2026?
88%chance7 days▲ +9 ptsYes88¢No13¢Gotcha medium · 1 of 4 flaggedResolverWill Putin meet with Zelenskyy by December 31, 2026?
3%chance7 days▼ −2 ptsYes3¢No97¢Gotcha medium · 1 of 4 flaggedResolverChina x Japan military clash before 2027?
2%chance7 days▼ −1 ptsYes2¢No98¢Gotcha medium · 3 of 4 flaggedResolverWordingExceptionsWill Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?
1%chance7 days▼ −1 ptsYes1¢No99¢Gotcha medium · 1 of 4 flaggedResolverWill Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?
5%chance7 days▼ −1 ptsYes5¢No96¢Gotcha medium · 3 of 4 flaggedResolverWordingExceptionsWill Russia invade a NATO country by December 31, 2026?
2%chance7 days↔ ±0 ptsYes2¢No98¢Gotcha medium · 2 of 4 flaggedResolverWordingWill the Houthis enter Saudi Arabia by December 31?
27%chance7 days▼ −44 ptsYes27¢No73¢Gotcha medium · 2 of 4 flaggedResolverWordingChina x Philippines military clash before 2027?
11%chance7 days▼ −2 ptsYes11¢No90¢Gotcha medium · 3 of 4 flaggedResolverWordingExceptionsWill Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31?
9%chance7 days↔ ±0 ptsYes9¢No91¢Gotcha medium · 2 of 4 flaggedResolverWordingU.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by December 31, 2026?
7%chance7 days↔ ±0 ptsYes7¢No93¢Gotcha medium · 2 of 4 flaggedResolverWordingWill Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by December 31, 2026?
3%chance7 days▼ −1 ptsYes3¢No97¢Gotcha medium · 3 of 4 flaggedResolverWordingExceptionsEU adopts Chinese telecom gear phase-out law by December 31, 2028?
31%chanceSince 00:56 UTC▲ +1 ptsYes31¢No70¢Gotcha medium · 2 of 4 flaggedWordingExceptionsWill no next Israeli Minister of National Security be appointed by February 28, 2027?
36%chance7 days▲ +12 ptsYes36¢No65¢Gotcha medium · 3 of 4 flaggedExceptionsResolverWording▲ +4 pts · 24hIran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?
3%chance7 days▼ −5 ptsYes3¢No97¢Gotcha medium · 1 of 4 flaggedResolverWill Putin meet with Zelenskyy by December 31, 2027?
27%chance7 days▲ +4 ptsYes27¢No74¢Gotcha medium · 2 of 4 flaggedResolverWordingWill Russia announce a new forced mobilization by December 31, 2026?
4%chanceSince Nov 7▲ +1 ptsYes4¢No96¢Gotcha low · nothing flaggedWill the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?
2%chance7 days▼ −1 ptsYes2¢No98¢Gotcha low · 1 of 4 flaggedResolverMojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?
10%chance7 days▼ −1 ptsYes10¢No91¢Gotcha medium · 3 of 4 flaggedResolverWordingExceptionsWill a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?
11%chance7 days▼ −1 ptsYes11¢No89¢Gotcha low · 2 of 4 flaggedResolverWordingUS obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?
2%chance7 days▼ −1 ptsYes2¢No98¢Gotcha medium · 1 of 4 flaggedResolver