Weekly digest
Every Friday: the week's biggest Polymarket moves and their likely drivers, markets closing soon whose rules carry a High Gotcha risk, and how the most-traded markets resolved. Built from Brierpoint's data. No picks, no predictions.
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Latest issue · 6 November 2026
Covers the 7 days to 6 Nov 2026, 12:00 UTC.
Biggest moves
The week's largest price moves on Polymarket, with the likely driver.
- Will Democrats win white voters in the midterms?
▲ Up 83 points · Likely driver: Close to deadline
The price rose from 6% to 87% as the market approached its deadline, settling toward its likely outcome.
AI-generated ·
- US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?
▼ Down 72 points · Likely driver: Related outcomes
The price dropped sharply from 72% to 1% as part of a broader synchronized repricing across 5 related ceasefire outcome markets moving down together.
AI-generated ·
- Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on November 8?
▼ Down 71 points · Likely driver: Coin price
The market price dropped from 87% to 15% as Bitcoin fell 2.88% on Binance during the move hour (and down 5.54% over the window), making the $78,000 threshold significantly less likely to hold before the deadline.
AI-generated ·
- Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on November 7?
▼ Down 70 points · Likely driver: Coin price
The market fell from 80% to 18% as Bitcoin dropped 1.7% on Binance in the move hour, reducing the chance of finishing above $78,000 as the November 7 deadline neared.
AI-generated ·
- Will the Democratic Party win the GA-11 House seat?
▼ Down 45 points · Likely driver: Thin market
The price fell from 21% to 4%, with concentrated activity from 3 wallets across $82 in volume acting as a likely driver amid low liquidity.
AI-generated ·
Rules worth reading
Markets closing in the next 7 days whose rules carry a High Gotcha risk.
- Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include Labour + Green?
High Gotcha risk · closes
- Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include Labour + NZF?
High Gotcha risk · closes
Resolved this week
How the most-traded markets resolved.
- Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
Resolved: Yes
- 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House
Resolved: No
- Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
Resolved: No
- 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House
Resolved: Yes
- Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
Resolved: Yes