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Moved ≥ 5 pts, 24h44▲ 22 up · ▼ 22 down
Most traded, 24h · among the markets below
- Trump out as President before 2027?$115.8K
- Howard Lutnick out as Secretary of Commerce by December 31?$41.9K
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?$30.4K
Biggest moves, 24h
- Will Luka Mesec win the 2026 Ljubljana mayoral election?▼ −21 pts → 28%
- Howard Lutnick out as Secretary of Commerce by December 31?▲ +17 pts → 48%
- Next White House Press Secretary announced by November 30, 2026?▼ −17 pts → 33%
- Will Alberto Núñez Feijóo be the next Prime Minister of Spain?▼ −12 pts → 84%
- Will the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) win the most head of local government elections in the 2026 Taiwan local elections?▲ +12 pts → 38%
Howard Lutnick out as Secretary of Commerce by December 31?
48%chanceSince Nov 12▲ +9 ptsYes48¢No53¢Gotcha medium · 2 of 4 flaggedResolverExceptions▲ +15 pts · 24hTrump out as President before 2027?
2%chance7 days▼ −1 ptsYes2¢No98¢Gotcha medium · 3 of 4 flaggedResolverWordingExceptionsClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
2%chance7 days▼ −1 ptsYes2¢No98¢Gotcha low · nothing flaggedTrump declares election interference national emergency by December 31?
4%chance7 days▼ −1 ptsYes4¢No96¢Gotcha medium · 2 of 4 flaggedResolverExceptionsWill Trump veto a bill by February 1, 2027?
43%chance7 days▼ −2 ptsYes43¢No57¢Gotcha low · 1 of 4 flaggedResolver▼ −9 pts · 24hSAVE Act becomes law by December 31, 2026?
2%chance7 days▼ −2 ptsYes2¢No98¢Gotcha low · nothing flaggedWill Teddy Riner be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
40%chanceSince Nov 11▼ −2 ptsYes40¢No60¢Gotcha low · 1 of 4 flaggedResolverWill the next Israeli government hold fewer than 58 seats?
64%chance7 days▲ +16 ptsYes64¢No37¢Gotcha low · 1 of 4 flaggedExceptions▼ −7 pts · 24hUS strike on Colombia by December 31?
17%chance7 days▲ +6 ptsYes17¢No83¢Gotcha medium · 3 of 4 flaggedResolverTimingExceptions▼ −4 pts · 24hWill Helen Zille be the next mayor of Johannesburg?
39%chance7 days▼ −14 ptsYes39¢No62¢Gotcha low · 1 of 4 flaggedResolver▼ −6 pts · 24hWill Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
1%chance7 days↔ ±0 ptsYes1¢No99¢Gotcha medium · 3 of 4 flaggedResolverWordingExceptionsSpain General Election: PP + Vox Majority?
91%chanceSince Nov 8▼ −1 ptsYes91¢No9¢Gotcha low · 1 of 4 flaggedResolverMitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?
3%chance7 days▼ −1 ptsYes3¢No97¢Gotcha low · nothing flaggedJames Comey sentenced to Prison in 2026?
<1%chance7 days↔ ±0 ptsYes<1¢No>99¢Gotcha medium · 3 of 4 flaggedResolverWordingExceptionsWill the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026?
1%chance7 days↔ ±0 ptsYes1¢No99¢Gotcha medium · 2 of 4 flaggedResolverWordingWill Marco Rubio announce a presidential run by June 30, 2027?
31%chanceSince Nov 7▼ −6 ptsYes31¢No69¢Gotcha medium · 2 of 4 flaggedResolverWordingNext Israeli government a minority government?
55%chanceSince Nov 8▲ +16 ptsYes55¢No45¢Gotcha low · 1 of 4 flaggedResolverMiguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?
4%chance7 days↔ ±0 ptsYes4¢No96¢Gotcha medium · 3 of 4 flaggedResolverWordingExceptionsJeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027?
<1%chance7 days↔ ±0 ptsYes<1¢No>99¢Gotcha medium · 2 of 4 flaggedResolverWordingZohran Mamdani out as mayor of NYC before 2027?
2%chance7 days▼ −1 ptsYes2¢No99¢Gotcha medium · 2 of 4 flaggedExceptionsResolverWill Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026?
2%chance7 days▼ −2 ptsYes2¢No98¢Gotcha low · 1 of 4 flaggedResolverWill the Democrats win Texas in the 2028 Presidential Election?
36%chance7 days▲ +4 ptsYes36¢No65¢Gotcha low · nothing flaggedWill PAN win the most seats in the 2027 Tamaulipas Congress election?
11%chanceSince Nov 7↔ ±0 ptsYes11¢No90¢Gotcha low · 1 of 4 flaggedResolverFetterman out by December 31, 2026?
4%chance7 days▼ −2 ptsYes4¢No96¢Gotcha medium · 2 of 4 flaggedExceptionsResolverWill the US capture another world leader in 2026?
2%chance7 days↔ ±0 ptsYes2¢No98¢Gotcha medium · 2 of 4 flaggedResolverWordingWill Chang Chi-kai win the next Chiayi City Mayor election?
12%chanceSince Nov 7▲ +1 ptsYes12¢No89¢Gotcha low · 1 of 4 flaggedResolverWill Katie Zacharia give another press briefing as Press Secretary?
2%chance7 days▲ +1 ptsYes2¢No98¢Gotcha low · 1 of 4 flaggedResolverWill Trump be impeached before his term ends?
67%chance7 days▼ −4 ptsYes67¢No34¢Gotcha low · 1 of 4 flaggedResolverWill anyone be jailed over Epstein disclosures?
2%chanceSince Nov 10▼ −1 ptsYes2¢No98¢Gotcha high · 3 of 4 flaggedResolverWordingExceptionsWill María Corina Machado win the next Venezuelan presidential election?
69%chance7 days▲ +1 ptsYes69¢No31¢Gotcha low · nothing flaggedTrump goes to space in 2026?
1%chance7 days↔ ±0 ptsYes1¢No99¢Gotcha low · 1 of 4 flaggedResolverWill anyone win France’s presidential election in the first round?
5%chance7 days↔ ±0 ptsYes5¢No95¢Gotcha low · 1 of 4 flaggedResolverWill Kyriakos Mitsotakis be the next Prime Minister of Greece?
70%chance7 days▲ +1 ptsYes70¢No30¢Gotcha low · 2 of 4 flaggedResolverExceptionsWill the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
2%chance7 days↔ ±0 ptsYes2¢No98¢Gotcha low · 2 of 4 flaggedResolverExceptionsIsraeli Knesset election annulled?
1%chance7 days▼ −2 ptsYes1¢No99¢Gotcha medium · 3 of 4 flaggedResolverTimingExceptionsGreenland snap election called by December 31?
6%chance7 days▲ +2 ptsYes6¢No94¢Gotcha low · 1 of 4 flaggedResolverWill Ilhan Omar be deported by December 31, 2026?
2%chance7 days▼ −1 ptsYes2¢No98¢Gotcha low · 1 of 4 flaggedResolverNicolás Maduro released from custody by December 31, 2026?
2%chance7 days↔ ±0 ptsYes2¢No98¢Gotcha low · 1 of 4 flaggedResolverObama arrested before 2027?
1%chance7 days▼ −1 ptsYes1¢No99¢Gotcha low · 1 of 4 flaggedResolverCuba leader Miguel Diaz-Canel in US custody by December 31?
2%chanceSince Nov 8▼ −2 ptsYes2¢No98¢Gotcha low · 1 of 4 flaggedResolverIlhan Omar arrested by December 31, 2026?
8%chance7 days▼ −1 ptsYes8¢No92¢Gotcha low · 1 of 4 flaggedResolverFetterman leaves the Democrats by December 31, 2026?
4%chance7 days↔ ±0 ptsYes4¢No96¢Gotcha low · 1 of 4 flaggedResolverWill Chen Ying win the next Taitung County Magistrate election?
12%chanceSince Nov 8▼ −3 ptsYes12¢No88¢Gotcha low · nothing flaggedBrazil presidential election annulled by December 31?
2%chance7 days▼ −2 ptsYes2¢No99¢Gotcha medium · 3 of 4 flaggedResolverTimingExceptionsJD Vance out as VP by December 31?
2%chance7 days↔ ±0 ptsYes2¢No98¢Gotcha medium · 3 of 4 flaggedResolverWordingExceptionsWill the Democrats win New Jersey in the 2028 Presidential Election?
88%chance7 days▲ +2 ptsYes88¢No13¢Gotcha low · nothing flaggedTrump impeached and removed before 2028?
17%chance7 days▼ −4 ptsYes17¢No83¢Gotcha low · nothing flaggedWill Morena win the most seats in the 2027 Puebla Congress election?
93%chance7 days▲ +1 ptsYes93¢No7¢Gotcha low · 1 of 4 flaggedExceptions