Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by...?

This event tracks whether a mutually agreed ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine goes into effect and lasts for at least 10 consecutive days by various specified milestone dates in 2026.

How the outcomes relate

The event contains markets corresponding to different cutoff deadlines. Because each market asks whether a qualifying ceasefire takes effect by its specified date, multiple markets can resolve Yes if a ceasefire begins before an earlier deadline, while a later deadline could resolve Yes even if an earlier one resolves No.

How it resolves

A market resolves to Yes if a mutually agreed ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine officially enters into effect by 11:59 PM Eastern European Time (EET) on its specified date and remains continuously in effect for at least 10 calendar days ending at 11:59 PM EET on the 10th day. The ceasefire must represent a general suspension of direct kinetic military engagement across the primary theater; informal pauses, backchannel understandings, and location-specific restrictions do not qualify. Isolated violations or technical lapses do not invalidate it as long as the general suspension continues. Otherwise, the market resolves to No.

Key dates

• First deadline: Oct 31, 2026 — 11:59 PM EET deadline for a qualifying ceasefire to go into effect for the October 31 market.
• Second deadline: Dec 31, 2026 — 11:59 PM EET deadline for a qualifying ceasefire to go into effect for the December 31 market.

Resolution source

A consensus of credible sources

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash · 17 Oct 2026, 15:34 UTC