US-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by...?

This event tracks whether the United States and Canada will announce a qualifying diplomatic agreement to lower US tariffs on Canada by specific target dates. Each market measures whether such an agreement is announced on or before a particular deadline.

How the outcomes relate

The event consists of a timeline of expiration dates. Because an agreement reached by an earlier date satisfies all later deadlines, multiple markets can resolve Yes. If an agreement occurs after an earlier deadline but before a later one, the earlier market resolves No while the later market resolves Yes.

How it resolves

A market resolves Yes if an official diplomatic agreement between the US and Canada to lower US tariffs on Canada is announced by 11:59 PM ET on the specified date. Lowering tariffs includes reduction, revocation, suspension, or cancelled implementation of previously announced tariffs. Both countries must announce acceptance via joint or separate declarative statements confirming acceptance. If announcements leave the status ambiguous, a market may stay open up to 14 calendar days after the last country's initial announcement to reach definitive confirmation; otherwise, adjudication relies on the totality of information. If no qualifying agreement is announced by the deadline (or after the ambiguity period), the market resolves No.

Key dates

• October deadline: Oct 31, 2026 — Deadline of 11:59 PM ET for the October 31 market.
• December deadline: Dec 31, 2026 — Deadline of 11:59 PM ET for the December 31 market.

Resolution source

Official information from the governments of the United States and Canada and a consensus of credible reporting.

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash · 23 Oct 2026, 00:30 UTC