Nothing Ever Happens: 2026
Gotcha risk
Not assessedCannot assess: The resolution rules do not identify a resolution source. (no_resolution_source)
Read the full assessment
Although the text lists specific trigger events for market resolution, it fails to identify any resolution source, data provider, or decider to determine whether these criteria have been satisfied. Furthermore, the complete defining terms and verification sources are deferred to an external document that is not contained within the provided text.
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
93%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET: - Trump out as President - China invades Taiwan - Xi Jinping out - U.S. invades Iran - Iranian regime falls - Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’ - Jeffrey Epstein alive - Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate - Russia invades a NATO country - Trump acquires Greenland - 9.0 or above earthquake - Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) - Major meteor strike (250kt+) Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”. The full rules for this market can be found here: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/NEH/NEH+2026.pdf
Rules history
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET: - Trump out as President - China invades Taiwan - Xi Jinping out - U.S. invades Iran - Iranian regime falls - Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’ - Jeffrey Epstein alive - Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate - Russia invades a NATO country - Trump acquires Greenland - 9.0 or above earthquake - Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) - Major meteor strike (250kt+) Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”. The full rules for this market can be found here: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
Market explained
This market measures whether none of thirteen specified major global, political, economic, or natural events occur through the end of 2026. It is unusual because it resolves affirmatively only if all listed major events fail to happen.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if none of the thirteen listed major events occur by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. The market resolves to No if any of the specified conditions occur between market creation and the deadline. Qualifying events include: Trump leaving the presidency, China invading Taiwan, Xi Jinping leaving power, the U.S. invading Iran, the Iranian regime falling, Bitcoin reaching $1,000,000 or falling to $10,000, Jeffrey Epstein being alive, a Republican Trifecta with a Senate supermajority, Russia invading a NATO country, Trump acquiring Greenland, a magnitude 9.0 or higher earthquake, a volcanic eruption of VEI 6 or higher, or a meteor strike of at least 250 kilotons.
Resolution source
No resolution source is identified in this explainer.
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·