Will Venezuela become 51st state?
Gotcha risk
Medium3 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The question asks whether Venezuela will become the 51st state, but the rules expand and alter this condition in several specific ways.
Read the full assessment
The question asks whether Venezuela will become the 51st state, but the rules expand and alter this condition in several specific ways. First, an annexation involving only a portion of Venezuelan territory qualifies. Second, full admission is not strictly required within the window; the announcement of an official agreement is sufficient even if implementation is scheduled for the future. Third, the rules include an early negative resolution trigger: if any other territory without Venezuelan land becomes the 51st US state during the 2026 timeframe, the market immediately resolves negatively. Resolution relies primarily on US government announcements alongside a consensus of credible media reporting.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Medium
- Exceptions
- High
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
1%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" any portion of Venezuela is formally annexed into the United States of America and becomes the 51st state between January 3, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An official agreement that is announced will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when it is slated to go into effect. If any territory that includes no portion of Venezuelan land is made the 51st US state within this market's timeframe, this market will immediately resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Market explained
This market measures whether any portion of Venezuela will be formally annexed into the United States and become the 51st state in 2026. Notably, an announced official agreement qualifies for Yes regardless of its effective date, while another territory becoming the 51st state triggers an immediate No.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if any portion of Venezuela is formally annexed into the United States and becomes the 51st state between January 3, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. An official agreement that is announced suffices for a Yes resolution, regardless of when it is scheduled to take effect. The market resolves to No if another territory containing no Venezuelan land becomes the 51st US state within the timeframe, which triggers an immediate No, or if the Yes criteria are not met by the deadline. Information from the US government serves as the primary resolution source, alongside a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution source
Information from the government of the United States, or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·