Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2026?
Gotcha risk
Medium2 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: This market requires the U.S. to commence a military offensive intended to establish control over Venezuelan territory within a specific window starting November 3, 2025.
Read the full assessment
This market requires the U.S. to commence a military offensive intended to establish control over Venezuelan territory within a specific window starting November 3, 2025. Determining whether a military action constitutes an offensive 'intended to establish control' rather than a targeted strike, blockade, or counter-narcotics operation requires subjective interpretation of intent. Furthermore, resolution relies entirely on a consensus of credible sources without specifying primary authorities or official government declarations, leaving final judgment to whoever assesses the media consensus.
- Resolver
- High
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Medium
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
2%
chance▲ +0.05 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Venezuela between November 3, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Venezuela or the United States as of September 6, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Market explained
This market measures whether the United States initiates a military offensive to gain control of Venezuelan territory by December 31, 2026. Territory is defined based on de facto control as of September 6, 2025.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Venezuela between November 3, 2025, and December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. For this evaluation, land de facto controlled by Venezuela or the U.S. as of September 6, 2025, at 12:00 PM ET, is treated as sovereign territory of that country. The market resolves to No if no such offensive commences within the specified timeframe. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible sources.
Resolution source
A consensus of credible sources
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·