Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?
Gotcha risk
Medium2 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: This market resolves based on whether the United States initiates a military offensive intended to establish control over Cuban land territory before the end of 2026.
Read the full assessment
This market resolves based on whether the United States initiates a military offensive intended to establish control over Cuban land territory before the end of 2026. Determining whether an action qualifies requires evaluating military intent—specifically distinguishing between limited airstrikes or naval operations and an operation designed to seize land. The rules clarify that existing de facto control at the time of creation defines sovereign territory, which excludes existing installations like Guantanamo Bay from counting as Cuban territory for an invasion trigger. Resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting rather than an official government declaration or specific named registry, leaving judgment to the decider in marginal or contested military scenarios.
- Resolver
- High
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Medium
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
2%
chance▼ −0.1 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Cuban land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Cuba or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Market explained
This market measures whether the United States will launch a military offensive to gain control of Cuban land territory during 2026. Territory de facto controlled by either country at market creation defines each nation's sovereign land.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Cuban land territory by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. For this condition, land de facto controlled by Cuba or the United States at the time of market creation is considered sovereign territory of that country. The market resolves to No if no such military offensive begins by the deadline. The resolution is determined by a consensus of credible sources.
Resolution source
A consensus of credible sources
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·