Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026?
Gotcha risk
Medium3 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: This market resolves early to Yes upon an announcement of resignation or removal, even if that change takes effect after the deadline.
Read the full assessment
This market resolves early to Yes upon an announcement of resignation or removal, even if that change takes effect after the deadline. Resolution can also trigger if the individual is detained, effectively removed, or permanently prevented from performing duties, which leaves room for interpretation in fluid political or contested leadership scenarios. While official announcements from the individual or government serve as the primary source, resolution may also rely on a consensus of credible reporting, giving the resolver latitude to decide when effective control or a valid announcement has occurred.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Medium
- Exceptions
- Medium
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
5%
chance▲ +0.05 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Acting President Delcy Rodríguez ceases to be leader of Venezuela for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Delcy Rodríguez's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Delcy Rodríguez and the government of Venezuela; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market explained
This market measures whether Acting President Delcy Rodríguez ceases to be the leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026. An unusual aspect is that an announcement of her resignation or removal triggers an immediate Yes resolution, regardless of when it actually takes effect.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Acting President Delcy Rodríguez ceases to be leader of Venezuela for any period between market creation and December 31, 2026 (ET). It also resolves to Yes if an announcement of her resignation or removal is made before the end date, even if the effective date is later, or if she is detained, effectively removed, or permanently prevented from fulfilling her duties. Otherwise, the market resolves to No. The resolution source will be official information from Delcy Rodríguez and the government of Venezuela, or a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution source
Official information from Delcy Rodríguez and the government of Venezuela, or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·