Will the US capture another world leader in 2026?
Gotcha risk
Medium2 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: Resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting rather than an official registry or government confirmation, leaving outcome determination to the decider's discretion.
Read the full assessment
Resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting rather than an official registry or government confirmation, leaving outcome determination to the decider's discretion. The criteria carefully specify what qualifies as physical capture, direct ground participation by US personnel versus advisory support, and the status of heads of state (restricted to UN member states). However, determining whether US contractors were directly involved on the ground or whether an interim leader was widely recognized involves interpretive judgment, especially given that covert or military operations often feature conflicting or delayed initial reporting.
- Resolver
- High
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Medium
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
2%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. government personnel (including U.S. military, CIA, or any U.S. federal law enforcement agency) directly participate on the ground in an operation that results in the capture of a qualifying head of state by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only individuals who are the active head of state of a UN member state at the time of capture will qualify. Acting/interim heads of state will qualify if they are widely recognized as holding the head-of-state office at that time. For the purposes of this market, “capture” means the head of state is taken into physical custody and detained (including arrest, detention, or seizure) such that they are no longer free to leave at will, even if only temporarily. Voluntary surrender may qualify if it results in immediate detention/custody. U.S. personnel must directly participate on the ground to qualify. Intelligence, surveillance, planning, logistics, transport, support, funding, training, or advisory roles alone will not count, even if they materially contribute to the operation. If U.S. personnel are physically present in the operational area and take direct action (e.g., raiding, detaining, securing, physically transferring custody), it will qualify. U.S. government contractors will be considered to be U.S. personnel if they are confirmed to be acting under the direction of U.S. government authorities. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market explained
This market measures whether U.S. personnel directly participate on the ground in capturing an active head of state of a UN member state by the end of 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if U.S. government personnel, including military, CIA, federal law enforcement, or confirmed contractors under U.S. direction, directly participate on the ground in an operation resulting in the capture of an active head of state of a UN member state by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Acting or interim heads of state qualify if widely recognized as holding the office. Capture requires physical custody and detention preventing them from leaving at will, including qualifying voluntary surrender. Non-ground roles like intelligence, logistics, or advisory support alone do not qualify. The market resolves to No otherwise. Resolution is decided by a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·