Will the U.S. invade Colombia in 2026?
Gotcha risk
Medium2 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: Resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting rather than an official government declaration or treaty registry, giving the deciding party substantial latitude to interpret news coverage.
Read the full assessment
Resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting rather than an official government declaration or treaty registry, giving the deciding party substantial latitude to interpret news coverage. While the rules define an invasion as commencing a military offensive intended to establish control over Colombian land territory, assessing the underlying intent of limited military actions, joint anti-narcotics operations, or cross-border raids could lead to disagreement if the scale or objectives of an operation are ambiguous in public reporting.
- Resolver
- High
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Medium
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
1%
chance▼ −0.1 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Colombian land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Colombia or the United States, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market explained
This market measures whether the United States initiates a military offensive to gain control of Colombian land territory during 2026. Territory is defined by de facto control at the time of market creation.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the United States begins a military offensive intended to establish control over any part of Colombian land territory by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Land de facto controlled by Colombia or the United States as of market creation is treated as the sovereign territory of that country. The market resolves to No if no such military offensive commences by the deadline. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·