Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?
Gotcha risk
Medium3 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: Holders should note that an announcement of resignation or removal triggers an immediate positive resolution regardless of when the transition actually takes effect, even if the scheduled departure date falls after the deadline.
Read the full assessment
Holders should note that an announcement of resignation or removal triggers an immediate positive resolution regardless of when the transition actually takes effect, even if the scheduled departure date falls after the deadline. Furthermore, the market can resolve positively if the leader is detained, effectively removed, or permanently prevented from carrying out his duties, which requires judgment if political disruptions or health crises arise. Resolution relies primarily on official statements from the Cuban government or the leader himself, but allows a consensus of credible reporting as an alternative, leaving discretion to deciders if state announcements conflict with independent reporting.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Medium
- Exceptions
- Medium
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
4%
chance▼ −0.25 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Miguel Díaz-Canel ceases to be President of Cuba for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Miguel Díaz-Canel's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Miguel Díaz-Canel and the government of Cuba; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market explained
This market measures whether Miguel Díaz-Canel leaves office as President of Cuba by December 31, 2026. An announcement of resignation or removal triggers an immediate Yes resolution even if the effective date occurs later.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Miguel Díaz-Canel ceases to be President of Cuba for any period between market creation and December 31 (ET). An announcement of his resignation or removal before the market end date resolves the market to Yes immediately, regardless of when it takes effect. Yes also applies if he is detained, effectively removed, or permanently prevented from fulfilling his duties during the timeframe. Otherwise, the market resolves to No. Resolution is determined by official information from Miguel Díaz-Canel and the government of Cuba, or a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution source
Official information from Miguel Díaz-Canel and the government of Cuba, or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·