Human moon landing in 2026?
Gotcha risk
Low1 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The resolution criteria align closely with the market title, requiring any human-crewed mission to achieve touchdown on the lunar surface before December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.
Read the full assessment
The resolution criteria align closely with the market title, requiring any human-crewed mission to achieve touchdown on the lunar surface before December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. The rules clarify that any physical touchdown with humans aboard qualifies even if technical complications arise afterward. Resolution does not rely on a designated space agency or official registry, instead depending on a consensus of credible reporting, but a crewed lunar landing is a historic global event that leaves little room for disputed reporting.
- Resolver
- High
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
<1%
chance▲ +0.05 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any human-crewed mission lands on the moon between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A touchdown of the spacecraft with humans aboard will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of technical complications. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market explained
This market measures whether a human-crewed mission lands on the Moon by the end of 2026. The market resolves based on a touchdown, even if technical complications occur.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if any human-crewed mission lands on the Moon between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. A touchdown of the spacecraft with humans aboard is sufficient for a Yes resolution, regardless of any technical complications. The market resolves No if no human-crewed mission lands on the Moon within the specified timeframe. A consensus of credible reporting determines the resolution.
Resolution source
a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-2.5-flash ·