Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The market relies on a specific, designated dashboard page on Arkham's Intel Explorer to track qualifying outflows or swaps.
Read the full assessment
The market relies on a specific, designated dashboard page on Arkham's Intel Explorer to track qualifying outflows or swaps. The evaluation window is clearly specified, though readers should note that the tracking window begins on January 9, 2026, at 1:00 PM ET rather than at the very start of the calendar year. A consensus of credible reporting serves only as a fallback if the primary platform becomes permanently unavailable. Because resolution depends directly on whether explicit transaction types appear on the designated entity page during the defined timeframe, the criteria are clear and leave minimal room for subjective interpretation.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
2%
chance▼ −0.2 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any wallet labeled as belonging to Satoshi Nakamoto on Arkham’s Intel Explorer shows an “Outflow” or “Swaps” transaction at any time between January 9, 2026, 1:00 PM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this market is Arkham’s Intel Explorer, specifically the entity page for Satoshi Nakamoto available at https://intel.arkm.com/explorer/entity/satoshi-nakamoto If Arkham becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible sources.
Market explained
This market measures whether any Bitcoin wallet labeled as Satoshi Nakamoto executes an outgoing transaction during the specified 2026 window according to Arkham's Intel Explorer.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if any wallet labeled as belonging to Satoshi Nakamoto on Arkham's Intel Explorer shows an Outflow or Swaps transaction between January 9, 2026, 1:00 PM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market resolves to No. Resolution is determined by Arkham's Intel Explorer Satoshi Nakamoto entity page. If Arkham becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on a consensus of credible sources.
Resolution source
Arkham's Intel Explorer
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·