US x China Military clash before 2027?
Gotcha risk
Medium2 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: Resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting rather than an official military or government record, leaving room for interpretation by the decider.
Read the full assessment
Resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting rather than an official military or government record, leaving room for interpretation by the decider. The rules provide specific inclusions and exclusions—such as counting both coast guards and requiring intentional ship ramming to cause severe damage like a hull breach rather than minor dents—but borderline incidents, contested warning shots, or disputed skirmishes in international waters could create ambiguity over whether the threshold for direct military engagement was met.
- Resolver
- High
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Medium
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
2%
chance▼ −0.05 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and the United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not. Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market explained
This market measures whether a direct military clash involving the use of force occurs between United States and Chinese military forces before the end of 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if there is a military encounter involving the use of force (such as missile strikes, artillery fire, gunfire, or other direct military engagements) between US and Chinese military forces between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Both the US Coast Guard and China Coast Guard are counted as part of their respective militaries. Intentional ship ramming counts for Yes only if it causes significant damage (like a hole in the hull) or sinks a military ship; minor damage like scrapes or dents does not count. Non-violent actions, warning shots, uninhabited artillery strikes, and non-impact missile launches do not qualify. The market resolves to No if no such encounter occurs by the deadline. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·