Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31?
Gotcha risk
Medium2 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The question omits the year, but the rules specify an end date of December 31, 2026.
Read the full assessment
The question omits the year, but the rules specify an end date of December 31, 2026. Resolution depends on a consensus of credible reporting rather than an official government record or designated registry, meaning someone must judge whether news reports adequately confirm that an exchange occurred. The rules broadly define a talk as any in-person interaction or verbal communication by phone or video call, which means brief, informal, or passing exchanges could trigger resolution if widely reported, while unverified claims or disputed diplomatic encounters may require subjective interpretation.
- Resolver
- High
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Medium
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
9%
chance▲ +2 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Vladimir Putin talk by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". A talk is defined as any interaction between Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Vladimir Putin, occurring either in person or through verbal communication by phone or video call. Events that occurred prior to the start of this market will not qualify toward its resolution. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market explained
This market measures whether Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Russian President Vladimir Putin will communicate directly by December 31, 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Vladimir Putin interact in person or verbally communicate via phone or video call by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Interactions that took place before the market began do not qualify. The market resolves to No if no qualifying interaction occurs by the specified deadline. The outcome will be determined by a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·