Major CEX insolvent in 2026?
Gotcha risk
Medium2 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules clearly specify the qualifying centralized exchanges: Binance, Coinbase, Bybit, OKX, and Kraken.
Read the full assessment
The rules clearly specify the qualifying centralized exchanges: Binance, Coinbase, Bybit, OKX, and Kraken. However, insolvency without a formal bankruptcy filing can be subjective and difficult to define, leaving room for disagreement over whether a statement or report definitively confirms insolvency. Resolution relies on either official announcements or a consensus of credible reporting, which requires discretion by the resolver to determine which media outlets qualify as credible and whether a sufficient consensus has been reached. The deadline is clearly set for December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Medium
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
2%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if official information released by any of the following major centralized exchanges: Binance, Coinbase, Bybit, OKX, or Kraken, official representatives of such exchange (e.g. lawyers, spokespeople, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting announces by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET that the exchange is insolvent or is filing/has filed for any variety of bankruptcy. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Market explained
This market measures whether any of five specific major centralized cryptocurrency exchanges (Binance, Coinbase, Bybit, OKX, or Kraken) is announced to be insolvent or filing for bankruptcy by the end of 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if official information released by Binance, Coinbase, Bybit, OKX, or Kraken, their official representatives (such as lawyers or spokespeople), or a consensus of credible reporting announces by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET that the exchange is insolvent or is filing/has filed for any variety of bankruptcy. Otherwise, the market resolves to No. Resolution depends on official exchange statements, their representatives, or a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution source
Official information from specified exchanges (Binance, Coinbase, Bybit, OKX, Kraken), their official representatives, or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·