Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The market rules clearly specify that an official announcement of retirement from Justice Alito or an official representative before December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET resolves the market to Yes.
Read the full assessment
The market rules clearly specify that an official announcement of retirement from Justice Alito or an official representative before December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET resolves the market to Yes. It explicitly clarifies that the announcement counts regardless of whether the retirement takes effect immediately or at a future date, and even if the retirement does not ultimately take place. Because resolution relies directly on official statements from the Justice or his office with a clear cutoff time, there is little ambiguity or room for unexpected outcomes.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
4%
chance▼ −0.55 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Samuel Alito announces that he will retire from his position as Associate Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The announced timing of his retirement may be immediate, at the end of the current Supreme Court term, or at any point in the future. Any qualifying announcement from Alito will count for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the announced retirement goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official announcements from Alito or one of his official representatives.
Market explained
This market measures whether Supreme Court Associate Justice Samuel Alito will announce his retirement by December 31, 2026. Resolution is triggered by the announcement itself, regardless of whether the retirement actually takes effect.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Samuel Alito announces his retirement from the Supreme Court by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. The planned retirement date can be immediate, at the end of the term, or at any future date, and counts even if the retirement never actually takes effect. The market resolves to No if no such announcement is made by the deadline. The resolution is determined by official announcements from Samuel Alito or his official representatives.
Resolution source
Official announcements from Samuel Alito or one of his official representatives
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·