Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?
Gotcha risk
Medium1 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The market clearly defines what qualifies as a visit by requiring physical entry onto Iran's terrestrial territory while explicitly excluding airspace and maritime territory.
Read the full assessment
The market clearly defines what qualifies as a visit by requiring physical entry onto Iran's terrestrial territory while explicitly excluding airspace and maritime territory. The question title does not specify a year, but the rules state the deadline is December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting rather than a single official registry or government border control source, leaving it to the decider to determine whether news reports establish that physical land entry occurred.
- Resolver
- High
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
1%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
If Reza Pahlavi visits Iran between market creation and December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Reza Pahlavi physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not Reza Pahlavi enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market explained
This market measures whether Reza Pahlavi physically enters the land territory of Iran by December 31, 2026. Entry into Iranian airspace or maritime waters does not qualify.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Reza Pahlavi physically enters the terrestrial territory of Iran between market creation and December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Entering Iranian airspace or maritime territory does not count toward a Yes resolution. The market resolves to No if he does not enter Iran's terrestrial territory by the deadline. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·