Fed rate cut by October 2026 meeting?
Outcome
No
Polymarket resolved this market to No.
No price before close
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Midpoint prices known at each point; implied probability in cents. Times in UTC.
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk at close — resolution-rule assessment
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This market clearly specifies the metric to track (the upper bound of the target federal funds rate) and the exact observation window beginning December 16, 2025 through the completion of the October 2026 FOMC meeting. It explicitly clarifies that unscheduled emergency rate cuts count toward a positive resolution, and provides a fixed deadline (November 7, 2026) in case the October meeting is postponed. The primary resolution source is the official Federal Reserve website, though the rules permit relying on a consensus of credible reporting as a secondary option.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
AI-generated before close · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Why it moved before close
No moves were explained in the 7 days before close.
Market explained before close
This market measures whether the Federal Reserve decreases the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between December 16, 2025, and the conclusion of the October 2026 FOMC meeting.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is decreased at any point between December 16, 2025, and the completion of the October 2026 FOMC meeting (currently scheduled for October 27-28, 2026). Emergency rate cuts within this timeframe qualify for a Yes resolution. The market resolves to No if no qualifying decrease occurs, or if no October meeting takes place by November 7, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET without an announced cut. Resolution is determined primarily by the official Federal Reserve website, though a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Key dates
- Start of measurement window: — Earliest date for a qualifying rate cut.
- October FOMC meeting start: — Scheduled start date of the October 2026 FOMC meeting.
- October FOMC meeting end: — Scheduled conclusion date of the October 2026 FOMC meeting.
- No-meeting resolution deadline: — Deadline at 11:59 PM ET after which the market resolves to No if no meeting occurred and no cut happened.
Resolution source
The official website of the Federal Reserve, or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated before close · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Resolution rules at close
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is decreased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting for October 2026, currently scheduled for October 27-28. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If no October meeting takes place by November 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No". Emergency rate cuts will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
About this page
A record of how this market resolved. The prices, analysis and rules shown here come from data Brierpoint captured or generated before close.