Ethereal FDV above $1B one day after launch?
Gotcha risk
Medium2 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules establish a clear snapshot time defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch, as well as a definitive long-term expiration date of December 31, 2027.
Read the full assessment
The rules establish a clear snapshot time defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch, as well as a definitive long-term expiration date of December 31, 2027. However, the resolution source is not a specifically named platform or index, but rather the 'most liquid price source available,' which leaves room for interpretation about which exchange or tracker qualifies if liquidity is split across multiple decentralized or centralized venues. Additionally, verifying the official total token supply depends on project disclosures or smart contract data that are not explicitly designated.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Medium
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
4%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Ethereal's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Ethereal (https://x.com/etherealdex) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Market explained
This market measures whether the Fully Diluted Valuation of Ethereal's governance token exceeds $1 billion one day after its launch.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV) of Ethereal's governance token is greater than $1 billion at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. A launch requires the token to be actively, publicly transferable and tradable. FDV is calculated by multiplying total token supply by the token price. The market resolves to No if the FDV is not greater than $1 billion at that time, or if Ethereal does not launch a token by December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source is the most liquid price source available.
Resolution source
The most liquid price source available
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·