Cuban regime falls in 2026?
Gotcha risk
Medium2 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: Resolution relies on determining whether the ruling party has lost de facto governing control or ceases to administer a majority of the population, which can be difficult to evaluate during fragmented transitions or extended civil conflict.
Read the full assessment
Resolution relies on determining whether the ruling party has lost de facto governing control or ceases to administer a majority of the population, which can be difficult to evaluate during fragmented transitions or extended civil conflict. No specific official body or registry decides the outcome; instead, resolution depends on evaluating a consensus of credible media reporting. The rules explicitly clarify that internal party leadership turnover, constitutional reforms that retain party control, and isolated civil unrest or localized loss of territory do not trigger a positive outcome.
- Resolver
- High
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Medium
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
3%
chance▼ −0.05 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Communist Party of Cuba (PCC) ceases to exercise de facto governing control over Cuba by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A “Yes” resolution requires a clear and widely reported break from the PCC’s historical control over the government of Cuba. This may include events such as the overthrow or dissolution of the PCC and its replacement by a new government or transitional authority, the constitutional removal of the PCC’s status as the sole ruling party followed by a transfer of governing power to a different political entity, or the holding of multi-party national elections that result in a government not controlled by the PCC. A “Yes” resolution does not require the formal dissolution of the PCC, provided the PCC no longer exercises de facto governing control over Cuba. Leadership changes within the PCC, including replacement of the First Secretary, or governmental reforms that preserve the PCC’s de facto governing control over Cuba, will not suffice. Partial loss of territory, civil unrest, or challenges by rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the PCC no longer administers the majority of the Cuban population within Cuba. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Communist Party of Cuba (PCC) loses de facto governing control over Cuba by December 31, 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the Communist Party of Cuba (PCC) ceases to exercise de facto governing control over Cuba by the deadline. Qualifying events include the overthrow, dissolution, or replacement of the PCC by a new government or transitional authority, the constitutional removal of its sole-ruling-party status followed by a power transfer, or multi-party national elections yielding a non-PCC government. Formal dissolution is not required. Internal PCC leadership changes, reforms preserving PCC control, and partial territorial loss or civil unrest do not count unless the PCC no longer administers most of the Cuban population. The market resolves to No otherwise. Resolution is decided by a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·