Will Iran legalize gay marriage?
Gotcha risk
Low1 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The criteria for legal recognition are well-defined, requiring full legal parity with opposite-sex marriage and explicitly excluding civil unions, domestic partnerships, and the recognition of foreign marriages.
Read the full assessment
The criteria for legal recognition are well-defined, requiring full legal parity with opposite-sex marriage and explicitly excluding civil unions, domestic partnerships, and the recognition of foreign marriages. The deadline is exact, and any qualifying policy must be actively in force by that time. The primary risk stems from the resolution mechanism, which relies on establishing a consensus among credible reporting rather than citing an official Iranian government registry or legal gazette, leaving the interpretation of news reports to the resolver.
- Resolver
- High
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
<1%
chance▼ −0.1 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the government of Iran legally recognizes marriage between two people of the same sex anywhere within Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Legal recognition refers to any law, constitutional amendment, or binding judicial decision that allows two adults of the same sex to marry with the same legal status as opposite-sex marriages under Iranian law. Recognition must apply within Iran’s legal system and permit same-sex couples to enter a legally valid marriage recognized by Iranian civil or religious authorities. The recognition must be in force by the listed deadline. The legalization of civil unions, domestic partnerships, or other forms of limited recognition that do not grant the legal status of marriage will not qualify. Recognition of marriages performed abroad without permitting such marriages to be performed within Iran will not qualify. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market explained
This market measures whether Iran will legally recognize same-sex marriage by December 31, 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the Iranian government legally recognizes marriage between two people of the same sex anywhere within Iran, in force by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Legal recognition requires a law, constitutional amendment, or binding judicial ruling granting the same legal status as opposite-sex marriages, allowing couples to enter a valid marriage recognized by Iranian civil or religious authorities. Civil unions, domestic partnerships, other limited recognition, or recognizing foreign marriages without permitting them domestically do not count. The market resolves to No otherwise. Resolution is decided by a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·