Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by December 31, 2026?
Gotcha risk
Medium3 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The market contains notable interpretive breadth regarding what constitutes being 'effectively removed' or 'permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties' of leadership, especially given the distinction between formal royal titles and de facto power.
Read the full assessment
The market contains notable interpretive breadth regarding what constitutes being 'effectively removed' or 'permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties' of leadership, especially given the distinction between formal royal titles and de facto power. Resolution relies primarily on official Saudi government communications, but the decider retains broad discretion to resolve the market based on a consensus of credible media reporting. Additionally, an early resolution clause dictates that any formal announcement of removal or resignation triggers an immediate affirmative outcome, even if the transition is scheduled to take effect at a future date.
- Resolver
- High
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Medium
- Exceptions
- Medium
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
3%
chance▲ +0.05 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia Mohammed bin Salman ceases to be leader of Saudi Arabia for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Mohammed bin Salman's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Mohammed bin Salman and the government of Saudi Arabia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market explained
This market measures whether Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman ceases to be the leader of Saudi Arabia by December 31, 2026. An announced resignation or removal triggers an immediate Yes resolution even if the effective date is set for later.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Mohammed bin Salman ceases to be the leader of Saudi Arabia for any period of time between market creation and the specified end date. Being detained, effectively removed, or permanently prevented from fulfilling leadership duties within the timeframe also triggers a Yes resolution. An announcement of his resignation or removal before the end date resolves the market to Yes immediately, regardless of when it takes effect. Otherwise, the market resolves to No. The deciding source is official information from Mohammed bin Salman and the Saudi Arabian government, though a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolution source
Official information from Mohammed bin Salman and the government of Saudi Arabia, or a consensus of credible reporting.
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·