Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?
Gotcha risk
Medium1 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The market title omits the target year, but the rules explicitly set the deadline as December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.
Read the full assessment
The market title omits the target year, but the rules explicitly set the deadline as December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. The rules clearly distinguish between ending all enrichment (which qualifies, even if temporary or conditional) and merely capping or reducing enrichment levels (which does not qualify). However, resolution relies entirely on a consensus of credible reporting to judge whether diplomatic statements or bilateral frameworks qualify as an official public pledge by Iran, leaving room for interpretation if statements are ambiguous or disputed.
- Resolver
- High
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
3%
chance▼ −0.8 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel. Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count. An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market explained
This market measures whether Iran publicly agrees to end all uranium enrichment by December 31, 2026. Notably, an agreement qualifies even if it only halts enrichment temporarily or serves merely as a precondition for broader talks, whereas agreements to simply limit or cap enrichment levels do not qualify.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. This includes unilateral announcements, agreements with the U.S. or Israel, agreements lasting for any duration, or commitments made as a precondition to a broader peace process regardless of whether the deal is finalized or when it takes effect. Agreements merely limiting or capping enrichment levels or quality do not qualify for Yes. Otherwise, the market resolves to No. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·