Will any country leave NATO by December 31, 2026?
Gotcha risk
Low1 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules clearly define what constitutes leaving the alliance by explicitly referencing formal withdrawal or submitting an official notice of denunciation under Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty.
Read the full assessment
The rules clearly define what constitutes leaving the alliance by explicitly referencing formal withdrawal or submitting an official notice of denunciation under Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty. The text also clarifies that merely leaving NATO's integrated military command structure does not qualify. The deadline is specified down to the minute. While the resolver may fall back on a consensus of credible reporting alongside official statements from NATO or the departing government, the legal criteria for triggering a positive resolution are standard and objective.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
3%
chance▲ +0.05 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any member state formally withdraws from NATO or provides an official notice of denunciation to NATO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty. A country's exit from NATO’s integrated military command structure will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". That country must either withdraw or submit a notice of denunciation to trigger a "Yes" resolution. The resolution source will be official information from the relevant government and NATO, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market explained
This market measures whether any member nation leaves NATO or formally begins the exit process by December 31, 2026. A key distinction is that merely withdrawing from NATO's integrated military command structure does not count.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if any NATO member state formally withdraws from the alliance or submits an official notice of denunciation under Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Leaving NATO's integrated military command structure does not qualify for a Yes resolution. The market resolves to No if no member state completes formal withdrawal or submits a notice of denunciation by the deadline. The resolution is determined using official information from the relevant government and NATO, with a consensus of credible reporting also accepted.
Resolution source
Official information from the relevant government and NATO, or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·