Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?
Gotcha risk
Medium3 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The market covers any military offensive intended to establish control over any inhabited territory administered by Taiwan, which includes outlying inhabited islands like Kinmen or Matsu, but explicitly excludes uninhabited islands.
Read the full assessment
The market covers any military offensive intended to establish control over any inhabited territory administered by Taiwan, which includes outlying inhabited islands like Kinmen or Matsu, but explicitly excludes uninhabited islands. Determining whether a military action constitutes an offensive with the specific intent to establish territorial control (versus a blockade, bombardment, or minor skirmish) introduces interpretive leeway. Resolution relies on statements from multiple potential official entities—including China, Taiwan, the UN, or any permanent UN Security Council member—or alternatively on a consensus of credible reporting without a specific hierarchy, giving the resolving party broad latitude to evaluate mixed news reports.
- Resolver
- High
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Medium
- Exceptions
- Medium
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
3%
chance▼ −0.05 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Market explained
This market measures whether China initiates a military invasion of Taiwan by June 30, 2027. Notably, the offensive must target inhabited Republic of China territory to qualify, explicitly excluding uninhabited islands.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Qualifying territory includes any land under the administration of the Republic of China, including inhabited islands, but uninhabited islands do not qualify. The market resolves to No if no such military offensive occurs by the deadline. Resolution will be determined by official confirmation from China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, or alternatively by a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution source
Official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·