Sanae Takaichi out as Prime Minister of Japan in 2026?
Gotcha risk
Medium3 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: This market contains terms like being effectively removed or permanently prevented from fulfilling duties, which require subjective interpretation if an ambiguous health or political crisis occurs.
Read the full assessment
This market contains terms like being effectively removed or permanently prevented from fulfilling duties, which require subjective interpretation if an ambiguous health or political crisis occurs. Additionally, the rules include an early resolution trigger: an announcement of resignation or removal will immediately resolve the market to Yes, even if the departure takes effect after the deadline or is later reversed. While official Japanese government statements are the primary source, the decider may also rely on a consensus of credible reporting if official clarity is lacking.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Medium
- Exceptions
- Medium
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
1%
chance▼ −0.15 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Sanae Takaichi ceases to be Prime Minister of Japan for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Takaichi's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Sanae Takaichi and the government of Japan; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market explained
This market measures whether Sanae Takaichi leaves or is announced to leave her role as Prime Minister of Japan by December 31, 2026. A key feature is that an announcement of resignation or removal resolves the market to Yes immediately, even if the effective date occurs later.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Sanae Takaichi ceases to be Prime Minister of Japan for any period between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. An announcement of her resignation or removal before the end date triggers an immediate Yes resolution, regardless of when it takes effect. Being detained, effectively removed, or permanently prevented from fulfilling her duties within the timeframe also qualifies for Yes. Otherwise, the market resolves to No. Resolution is determined using official information from Sanae Takaichi and the government of Japan, or a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution source
Official information from Sanae Takaichi and the government of Japan, or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·