US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?
Gotcha risk
Medium1 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The title omits the specific target year, but the rules clarify the deadline is December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.
Read the full assessment
The title omits the specific target year, but the rules clarify the deadline is December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. The market establishes clear standards for what counts as possession, requiring physical custody or control rather than prospective deals or future transfer agreements. However, resolution allows for determination via a widespread consensus of credible reporting if official government confirmation is not published. This gives resolving authorities latitude to interpret media reports and evaluate journalistic consensus on potentially covert or sensitive national security matters.
- Resolver
- High
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
2%
chance▼ −0.1 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government or military officially announces or confirms that it has gained possession of any quantity of enriched uranium previously controlled by Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. “Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify. Qualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure. A widespread consensus of credible reporting that the United States has gained possession of Iranian enriched uranium will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution, even if the United States makes no formal announcement. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a widespread consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market explained
This market measures whether the United States obtains physical possession of Iranian enriched uranium by December 31, 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the US government or military officially announces or confirms, or a widespread consensus of credible reporting indicates, that the US has gained actual physical custody or control of any quantity of Iranian-controlled enriched uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Possession can occur inside or outside US territory and through any means, such as seizure or agreed surrender, but future agreements or plans do not qualify. The market resolves to No if this condition is not met by the deadline. Resolution is determined by official US government information or credible reporting consensus.
Resolution source
Official information from the government of the United States, or a widespread consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·