Will Matteo Salvini be the next Prime Minister of Italy?
Gotcha risk
Low1 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules clearly specify that resolution requires an individual to be officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Italy by December 31, 2028, explicitly excluding interim or caretaker prime ministers.
Read the full assessment
The rules clearly specify that resolution requires an individual to be officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Italy by December 31, 2028, explicitly excluding interim or caretaker prime ministers. If no new prime minister takes office by the deadline, the market resolves to Other. While the resolution mechanism allows fallback to a consensus of credible reporting alongside official Italian government sources, the objective formal requirements of being sworn into office leave minimal room for subjective interpretation.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
<1%
chance▼ −0.3 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Italy by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Italy. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Italy; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market explained
This market measures whether Matteo Salvini will be the next officially appointed and sworn-in Prime Minister of Italy by December 31, 2028. Caretaker and interim appointments are excluded.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Matteo Salvini is officially appointed and sworn in as the next Prime Minister of Italy by December 31, 2028, at 11:59 PM ET. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister does not count toward resolution. The market resolves to No if another individual officially assumes the office first. The market resolves to Other if no Prime Minister takes office by the deadline. The resolution is determined by official information from the Government of Italy, or a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution source
Official information from the Government of Italy, or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·