Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026?
Gotcha risk
Medium3 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: This market resolves early to Yes upon a mere announcement of resignation or removal, even if the departure takes effect after the deadline or is later reversed.
Read the full assessment
This market resolves early to Yes upon a mere announcement of resignation or removal, even if the departure takes effect after the deadline or is later reversed. It also includes broad criteria allowing a Yes outcome if the individual is detained, effectively removed, or permanently prevented from fulfilling presidential duties. Determining whether someone is effectively prevented from performing their duties relies on interpretation rather than purely formal constitutional milestones. While official statements from the government or the individual are primary, the decider may also rely on a consensus of credible reporting, granting leeway in ambiguous political situations.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Medium
- Exceptions
- Medium
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
3%
chance▼ −0.05 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Lee Jae-myung ceases to be the President of South Korea for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Lee Jae-myung's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Lee Jae-myung and the government of South Korea; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market explained
This market tracks whether Lee Jae-myung ceases to serve as the President of South Korea by the end of 2026. A notable aspect is that an announced resignation or removal triggers an immediate Yes resolution even if the effective date happens later.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Lee Jae-myung ceases to be President of South Korea for any duration between creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. An official announcement of resignation or removal within the timeframe resolves the market to Yes immediately regardless of effective date. Being detained, effectively removed, or permanently prevented from performing presidential duties also qualifies for Yes. The market resolves to No if none of these conditions occur by the deadline. The resolution is determined by official statements from Lee Jae-myung or the South Korean government, or a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution source
Official information from Lee Jae-myung and the government of South Korea, or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·