Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?
Outcome
No
Polymarket resolved this market to No.
No price before the listed close date
- 7 days before
- 24 hours before
- 1 hour before
Counted back from the listed close date, ; price capture stops 6 hours after it. Midpoint prices known at each point; implied probability in cents. Times in UTC.
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk at close — resolution-rule assessment
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The market resolves based on a strictly specified financial benchmark: the official daily high price published directly by CME Group for the active front-month crude oil futures contract. The price threshold of $147.27 is unambiguous, and the rules precisely detail how the active contract month is determined across roll periods. The decider relies entirely on official exchange data from a provided direct link without subjective judgment, and early resolution triggers immediately if the threshold is breached prior to the final trading day.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
AI-generated before close · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Why it moved before close
No moves were explained in the 7 days before the listed close date.
Market explained before close
This market measures whether CME Crude Oil (CL) front-month futures reach a new all-time high price above $147.27 by September 30.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the official daily high price published by the CME Group for the Active Month of CME Crude Oil (CL) futures is greater than $147.27 on any trading day on or before the final trading day of September 30. The active month is the nearest listed contract, which shifts to the next contract two business days before spot month expiration. The market resolves to No if finalized data for the final trading day is published and the daily high has not exceeded $147.27. Resolution is decided by CME Group published data. If finalized data for the final trading day is not published within 14 calendar days (ET), the market resolves using data published across all CME Group channels up to that point.
Key dates
- End date: — Final trading day on or before this date determines the cutoff.
Resolution source
CME Group website
AI-generated before close · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Resolution rules at close
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, on any trading day after market creation, the official daily high price published by the CME Group for the Active Month (front month) of CME Crude Oil (CL) futures is greater than $147.27 by the final trading day on or before the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example, if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration. This market will resolve as soon as a high price greater than the listed value is published, or once finalized data for the final trading day of the specified time period is published and a high price greater than $147.27 has not been achieved. The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website (https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/crude-oil/light-sweet-crude.quotes.html) — specifically, the daily "High" prices for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures. If finalized data for the final trading day of the specified time period has not been published on the CME Group website within 14 calendar days (ET) of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on the data published through all CME Group channels up to that point.
About this page
A record of how this market resolved. The prices, analysis and rules shown here come from data Brierpoint captured or generated before close.