Will Esteban Bullrich win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?
Gotcha risk
Low1 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules clearly specify that resolution depends on the definitive outcome of the next Argentine presidential election, including any runoff.
Read the full assessment
The rules clearly specify that resolution depends on the definitive outcome of the next Argentine presidential election, including any runoff. Resolution initially relies on a consensus of credible media reporting, but explicitly falls back to official Argentine electoral authorities if any ambiguity arises. A very wide deadline of October 31, 2028 is provided, leaving ample time for certification and runoffs, with a clear fallback if results remain undetermined.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
<1%
chance▼ −0.05 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
A presidential election scheduled to be held in Argentina on October 24, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Argentinian Presidential election. This market includes any potential second round. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by Argentina government sources, including the Cámara Nacional Electoral (https://www.electoral.gob.ar/nuevo/index.php) and the Dirección Nacional Electoral (https://www.argentina.gob.ar/dine).
Market explained
This market measures whether Esteban Bullrich will win the 2027 Argentinian presidential election, including any potential second-round runoff.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Esteban Bullrich wins the next Argentinian presidential election, accounting for any potential second round. The market resolves to No if another candidate wins. The market resolves to Other if definitive election results are not known by October 31, 2028, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, or by official results from Argentine government sources such as the Cámara Nacional Electoral and the Dirección Nacional Electoral if ambiguity arises.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, or official Argentina government sources including the Cámara Nacional Electoral and the Dirección Nacional Electoral
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·