Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules clearly specify that the World Health Organization must explicitly characterize the specified virus, syndrome, or related outbreak as a pandemic in an official communication before the end of 2026.
Read the full assessment
The rules clearly specify that the World Health Organization must explicitly characterize the specified virus, syndrome, or related outbreak as a pandemic in an official communication before the end of 2026. The criteria explicitly exclude a Public Health Emergency of International Concern designation unless the term pandemic is specifically used, which removes a common source of confusion in global health markets. The primary resolution source is directly tied to official WHO statements, reports, briefings, or publications.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
1%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Hantavirus, Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS), Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS), or a Hantavirus-related outbreak as a "pandemic" in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic. The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market explained
This market measures whether the World Health Organization officially characterizes a Hantavirus outbreak as a pandemic by the end of 2026. A PHEIC designation alone does not qualify unless the explicit word pandemic is used.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Hantavirus, Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS), Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS), or a Hantavirus-related outbreak as a "pandemic" in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Qualifying communications include official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications. A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone does not qualify unless it is also explicitly described as a pandemic. The market resolves to No if no such characterization is made by the deadline. The primary resolution source is official WHO communications, though a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolution source
Official WHO communications, or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·