Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?
Outcome
No
Polymarket resolved this market to No.
No price before the listed close date
- 7 days before
- 24 hours before
- 1 hour before
Counted back from the listed close date, ; price capture stops 6 hours after it. Midpoint prices known at each point; implied probability in cents. Times in UTC.
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk at close — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules provide an objective, numerical definition for what constitutes effective closure: a 7-day moving average of ship arrivals of 10 or fewer as tracked by IMF PortWatch. The resolution source is a specific, direct URL from an official database, leaving no room for decider discretion. The market resolves immediately if the threshold is met early, or after September 30 data is published (with a clear 14-calendar-day fallback window if reporting is delayed). The rules explicitly address data revisions, specifying that a qualifying low figure cannot be retroactively disqualified by later adjustments, which eliminates uncertainty around metric recalculations.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
AI-generated before close · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Why it moved before close
No moves were explained in the 7 days before the listed close date.
Market explained before close
This market measures whether ship transit through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait drops to 10 or fewer vessels per day on a 7-day moving average by September 30.
How it resolves
This market resolves to Yes if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls ("Arrivals of Ships") for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and September 30. The market resolves to Yes immediately when such a data point is published. Pre-deadline revisions do not disqualify a previously qualifying data point. This market resolves to No if data through September 30 is published without any 7-day moving average meeting the threshold of 10 or fewer. If no data is published for September 30 within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, the market resolves based on data published up to that cutoff. Revisions made after data for September 30 has been published are disregarded. The resolution source is IMF PortWatch.
Key dates
- Target date: Listed date of September 30 by which the 7-day moving average threshold must be met.
- Data publication cutoff: 14 calendar days (ET) after September 30, after which resolution proceeds based on available published data.
Resolution source
IMF PortWatch
AI-generated before close · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Resolution rules at close
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
About this page
A record of how this market resolved. The prices, analysis and rules shown here come from data Brierpoint captured or generated before close.