Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
Gotcha risk
Medium1 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The market defines returning to normal as a single instance of the IMF Portwatch 7-day moving average reaching 60 or above between market creation and December 31, 2026.
Read the full assessment
The market defines returning to normal as a single instance of the IMF Portwatch 7-day moving average reaching 60 or above between market creation and December 31, 2026. This allows the market to resolve Yes immediately upon touching that threshold once, rather than requiring sustained normal traffic. The rules designate a specific IMF Portwatch dataset and URL, eliminating source discretion. Participants should note that retroactive downward revisions to previously qualifying data points will not invalidate an established Yes resolution, and obvious clerical data errors allow a three-day pause for correction.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Medium
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
6%
chance▼ −2 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for December 31, 2026, however, will not be considered. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Market explained
This market measures whether ship transit traffic through the Strait of Hormuz reaches a 7-day moving average of 60 or more calls by December 31, 2026, according to IMF Portwatch data.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls ("Arrivals of Ships") for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026. Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships, while ships not reported by IMF Portwatch are excluded. Revisions within the timeframe count but cannot disqualify an already qualified data point. The market resolves to No if data is published through December 31, 2026, without reaching this threshold, or based on available data if no data for the final date is published within 14 calendar days (ET) after the period ends. IMF Portwatch transit calls data is the deciding source.
Resolution source
IMF Portwatch
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·