Xi meets with Lee Jae-Myung by December 31?
Gotcha risk
Medium1 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The market defines a meeting broadly to include any direct in-person interaction, such as a brief handshake or exchange of words, while explicitly excluding merely being in the same room or making eye contact.
Read the full assessment
The market defines a meeting broadly to include any direct in-person interaction, such as a brief handshake or exchange of words, while explicitly excluding merely being in the same room or making eye contact. Participants should note that informal or pull-aside interactions qualify, which is broader than formal bilateral state meetings. No single official government body or registry is designated to decide the outcome; resolution relies instead on an evaluator assessing whether a consensus exists across credible media reports. The deadline is explicitly set to 11:59 PM ET on December 31.
- Resolver
- High
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
99%
chance▲ +0.2 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Lee Jae-Myung meets with Xi Jinping between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A meeting is defined as any encounter where both Lee Jae-Myung and Xi Jinping are present and interact with each other in person. An exchange of words, handshake, direct conversation, or other clear personal interaction between the named individuals will qualify as a meeting. Merely standing in proximity, making eye contact, or being present in the same room or event without direct interaction will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market explained
This market measures whether Lee Jae-Myung and Xi Jinping have an in-person meeting by December 31 at 11:59 PM ET. To count, they must engage in direct personal interaction rather than merely sharing a physical space.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Lee Jae-Myung meets in person with Xi Jinping between market creation and December 31 at 11:59 PM ET. Qualifying meetings require direct personal interaction, such as a handshake, an exchange of words, or direct conversation. Merely being present in the same room, standing nearby, or making eye contact does not qualify. The market resolves to No if no such qualifying meeting occurs by the deadline. The outcome is determined by a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·