Ebola pandemic in 2026?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules set a straightforward, text-based standard requiring the World Health Organization to explicitly use the term "pandemic" in an official public communication before the end of 2026.
Read the full assessment
The rules set a straightforward, text-based standard requiring the World Health Organization to explicitly use the term "pandemic" in an official public communication before the end of 2026. The criteria clearly distinguish a pandemic from a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC), ensuring that a PHEIC declaration alone will not trigger a positive resolution unless the specific term is used. The primary resolution source is directly specified as official WHO statements and reports, leaving minimal room for subjective judgment or interpretative disagreement.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
1%
chance▲ +0.05 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Ebola virus disease, Ebola, any Ebola strain, or any outbreak of ebola as a “pandemic” in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a “pandemic.” A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic. The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market explained
This market measures whether the World Health Organization officially characterizes Ebola as a pandemic by the end of 2026. A key distinction is that declaring a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) does not qualify on its own.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Ebola virus disease, Ebola, any Ebola strain, or any Ebola outbreak as a pandemic in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Qualifying communications include official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe it as a pandemic, whereas a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) declaration alone does not qualify. The market resolves to No if no such explicit characterization occurs within the timeframe. Resolution is determined using official WHO communications, or a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution source
World Health Organization (WHO) official communications, with consensus of credible reporting as a secondary source
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·