Will OpenAI IPO by September 30 2026?
Outcome
No
Polymarket resolved this market to No.
No price before the listed close date
- 7 days before
- 24 hours before
- 1 hour before
Counted back from the listed close date, ; price capture stops 6 hours after it. Midpoint prices known at each point; implied probability in cents. Times in UTC.
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk at close — resolution-rule assessment
Show less
Resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting and official announcements rather than a specific exchange registry or regulatory filing. The criteria define an IPO as the first sale of stock to the public on any recognized stock exchange. Participants should note an early resolution exception: if OpenAI is acquired by an already public company, the market resolves immediately to No rather than waiting until the deadline.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
AI-generated before close · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Why it moved before close
No moves were explained in the 7 days before the listed close date.
Market explained before close
This market measures whether OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by September 30, 2026. A notable rule is that an acquisition by an already-public company causes an immediate resolution to No.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if OpenAI completes an IPO by September 30, 2026, ET. An IPO is defined as the first sale of stock by OpenAI to the public on any recognized stock exchange. The market resolves to No if OpenAI does not complete an IPO by the specified deadline. The market resolves to No immediately if OpenAI is acquired by a company that is already public. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
Key dates
- Resolution deadline: — The deadline by which OpenAI must complete its IPO.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, official company announcements, and credible news sources
AI-generated before close · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Resolution rules at close
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by the listed date ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange. If OpenAI is acquired by another company that is already public, this market will immediately resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
About this page
A record of how this market resolved. The prices, analysis and rules shown here come from data Brierpoint captured or generated before close.