Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by December 31?
Gotcha risk
Low1 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules provide thorough definitions of what constitutes U.S. government custody, explicitly detailing qualifying actors such as military, intelligence personnel, and contractors, while distinguishing between voluntary diplomatic presence and actual physical detention or surrender.
Read the full assessment
The rules provide thorough definitions of what constitutes U.S. government custody, explicitly detailing qualifying actors such as military, intelligence personnel, and contractors, while distinguishing between voluntary diplomatic presence and actual physical detention or surrender. The resolution criteria rely on official U.S. government statements alongside a consensus of credible reporting, which leaves slight discretion if information is disputed or covert. Note that while the question title omits the year, the rules explicitly set the end date as December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
2%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Raul Castro is taken into U.S. government custody at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Raul Castro will be considered taken into U.S. government custody if U.S. government personnel (including military, CIA, personnel of another agency, or contractors acting under direct U.S. government authority) physically detain, arrest, capture, or otherwise assume physical custodial control of Raul Castro, regardless of location or duration. Visits, interactions with U.S. government personnel, or Raul Castro’s presence in U.S. spaces (including vessels, bases, facilities, or meetings) in a voluntary, non-detained capacity will not qualify. A voluntary surrender to U.S. personnel in which Raul Castro submits to U.S. custody, however, will qualify. Custody that is carried out by non-U.S. entities (including allied or partner forces) will not qualify unless U.S. personnel are physically present and themselves assume custodial control of Raul Castro, or unless a subsequent transfer into U.S. custody occurs. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the U.S. government and a consensus of credible reporting.
Market explained
This market measures whether former Cuban leader Raul Castro is taken into U.S. government custody by December 31, 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Raul Castro is taken into U.S. government custody at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Custody requires U.S. government personnel or contractors under direct U.S. authority to physically detain, arrest, capture, or assume custodial control of him anywhere for any duration, including through voluntary surrender. Voluntary non-detained visits or interactions do not qualify. Custody by non-U.S. entities does not qualify unless U.S. personnel are present and take control or he is transferred to U.S. custody. The market resolves to No otherwise. Resolution is determined by official U.S. government information and a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution source
Official information from the U.S. government and a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·