Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?
Gotcha risk
Medium2 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules primarily rely on a specific Institute for the Study of War (ISW) map URL and define exact legend categories that qualify.
Read the full assessment
The rules primarily rely on a specific Institute for the Study of War (ISW) map URL and define exact legend categories that qualify. However, there are several specific conditions to track: map changes must persist through at least one subsequent update cycle to count, and temporary map glitches are disregarded. In addition, territory gained via a negotiated settlement can trigger a positive resolution even if not shaded on the primary map, provided actual physical control rather than mere legal agreement is established, which introduces an unstandardized standard of proof for that specific scenario. Clear fallback sources are designated if the primary map becomes permanently unavailable.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Medium
- Exceptions
- Medium
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
1%
chance▲ +0.05 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory in Crimea between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Territory will be considered captured if any part of Crimea is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. The border around Crimea shaded in black on the ISW map will not qualify. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading under the following layers will qualify: - Claimed Ukrainian Counteroffensives Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Ukraine comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded under a qualifying layer on the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Rules history
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory in Crimea by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Territory will will be considered captured if any part of Crimea shaded blue on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Ukrainian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Reported Ukrainian Territorial Gains in the Past 24 Hours", or “Claimed Ukrainian Counteroffensives” will qualify. The border around Crimea shaded in black on the ISW map will not qualify. Once Ukraine captures territory in Crimea, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Ukraine comes into control of territory in Crimea as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.
Market explained
This market measures whether Ukraine captures or establishes actual control over any territory in Crimea by December 31, 2026. Resolution depends primarily on specific continuous map shading or verified actual control via negotiated settlement.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Ukraine captures any territory in Crimea between market creation and December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Qualifying capture requires continuous shading under the 'Claimed Ukrainian Counteroffensives' layer on the ISW map that persists through the next full ISW daily update cycle (or next finalized update if a day is skipped). The black-shaded border around Crimea does not qualify, and map glitches or errors are ignored. Ukraine also qualifies for Yes if it establishes actual physical control via a negotiated settlement, though a mere announcement of de jure control does not qualify. Once a qualifying condition is met, subsequent loss of control is disregarded. Otherwise, the market resolves to No. The primary source is the ISW Ukraine map, with DeepStateMap as the secondary fallback, and a consensus of credible reporting if both are permanently unavailable.
Resolution source
Institute for the Study of War (ISW) Ukraine map, with DeepStateMap or a consensus of credible reporting as fallbacks
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·