Trump meets with Mojtaba Khamenei by December 31?
Gotcha risk
Medium1 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules clearly establish what qualifies as a meeting, explicitly requiring direct personal interaction such as a handshake or conversation rather than mere presence in the same room.
Read the full assessment
The rules clearly establish what qualifies as a meeting, explicitly requiring direct personal interaction such as a handshake or conversation rather than mere presence in the same room. The main risk stems from resolution relying entirely on a consensus of credible reporting rather than an official record or specific authoritative source. For high-stakes geopolitical figures where interactions might be brief, disputed, or unconfirmed, determining whether credible reporting establishes that a direct interaction occurred leaves room for interpretation by the decider.
- Resolver
- High
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
2%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump meets with Mojtaba Khamenei between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A meeting is defined as any encounter where both specified individuals are present and interact with each other in person. An exchange of words, handshake, direct conversation, or other clear personal interaction between the named individuals will qualify as a meeting. Merely standing in proximity, making eye contact, or being present in the same room or event without direct interaction will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market explained
This market measures whether Donald Trump has an in-person meeting and direct interaction with Mojtaba Khamenei by December 31, 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Donald Trump meets with Mojtaba Khamenei in person between market creation and December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. A qualifying meeting requires both individuals to be present and engage in a clear personal interaction, such as an exchange of words, a handshake, or direct conversation. Merely being in the same room, standing in proximity, or making eye contact without direct interaction does not qualify. The market resolves to No if no such meeting occurs by the deadline. A consensus of credible reporting decides the outcome.
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·