Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?
Outcome
No
Polymarket resolved this market to No.
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- 7 days before close
- 24 hours before close
- 1 hour before close
Midpoint prices known at each point; implied probability in cents. Times in UTC.
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk at close — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly define the metric as the upper bound of the Federal Reserve target range and establish the baseline as the rate prior to the October 2026 meeting. Resolution relies strictly on the official Federal Open Market Committee post-meeting statement and published Federal Reserve data, providing direct links. The rules also include a clear rounding mechanism for non-standard rate adjustments and a definitive fallback rule if no statement is released.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
AI-generated before close · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Why it moved before close
No moves were explained in the 7 days before close.
Market explained before close
This market measures whether the Federal Reserve decreases the upper bound of the target federal funds rate range by 50 basis points or more following the October 2026 FOMC meeting.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the FOMC decreases the upper bound of the target federal funds rate range by 50 basis points or more compared to the level prior to the October 2026 meeting. Non-standard rate changes are rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points (for example, a 12.5 bps cut is counted as 25 bps). The market resolves to No if the rate is decreased by less than 50 bps, left unchanged, increased, or if no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting (which triggers a fallback to No change). Resolution is determined by the FOMC statement issued following the meeting.
Key dates
- FOMC meeting start date: — Start of the scheduled two-day October 2026 FOMC meeting.
- FOMC meeting end date: — End of the scheduled October 2026 FOMC meeting when the statement is expected.
Resolution source
FOMC statement and official Federal Reserve website
AI-generated before close · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Resolution rules at close
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
About this page
A record of how this market resolved. The prices, analysis and rules shown here come from data Brierpoint captured or generated before close.