Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?
Outcome
No
Polymarket resolved this market to No.
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Midpoint prices known at each point; implied probability in cents. Times in UTC.
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Gotcha risk at close — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly specify that the interest rate evaluated is the upper bound of the target federal funds range, decided at the FOMC meeting on October 27-28, 2026. Official Federal Reserve statements and published target ranges serve as the direct resolution source. Explicit rounding mechanics are provided if an unconventional rate adjustment occurs, and there is a clear fallback rule resolving to no change if no statement is released before the next scheduled meeting.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
AI-generated before close · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Why it moved before close
No moves were explained in the 7 days before close.
Market explained before close
This market measures whether the Federal Reserve decreases the upper bound of the target federal funds rate by 25 basis points following the October 2026 FOMC meeting. Non-standard rate changes are rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points.
How it resolves
The market resolves to the change in basis points of the upper bound of the target federal funds rate compared to its level prior to the October 2026 FOMC meeting. It resolves to Yes (or the 25 bps decrease bracket) if the rate is lowered by 25 basis points, including non-standard cuts rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points (such as a 12.5 bps cut). It resolves to No or another bracket if the rate change is different. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, the market resolves to the 'No change' bracket. Resolution is determined by the FOMC statement released after its meeting, alongside the official Federal Reserve website.
Key dates
- FOMC meeting dates: — The FOMC meeting is scheduled for October 27-28, 2026.
Resolution source
Federal Open Market Committee statement and the Federal Reserve official website
AI-generated before close · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Resolution rules at close
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
About this page
A record of how this market resolved. The prices, analysis and rules shown here come from data Brierpoint captured or generated before close.