Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?
Outcome
Yes
Polymarket resolved this market to Yes.
Yes price before close
- 7 days before close
- 24 hours before close
- 1 hour before close
Midpoint prices known at each point; implied probability in cents. Times in UTC.
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk at close — resolution-rule assessment
Show less
The rules clearly specify the exact metric used for resolution: the upper bound of the target federal funds range determined at the FOMC meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026. The official Federal Reserve statement and website are designated as the direct resolution sources. The rules include straightforward rounding instructions for unconventional rate adjustments and an unambiguous fallback resolving to no change if no statement is issued before the following meeting.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
AI-generated before close · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Why it moved before close
No moves were explained in the 7 days before close.
Market explained before close
This market measures whether the Federal Open Market Committee leaves the upper bound of the target federal funds rate unchanged following its October 2026 meeting. Non-standard rate changes are subject to specific rounding rules.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the FOMC leaves the upper bound of the target federal funds rate unchanged after its October 2026 meeting compared to the prior level, or if no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting. The market resolves to No if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased or decreased. Any rate change not matching the displayed options is rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points to determine the outcome. Resolution is determined by the FOMC statement released after its October 27-28, 2026 meeting or data published on the Federal Reserve official website.
Key dates
- FOMC meeting start: — First day of the scheduled FOMC meeting.
- FOMC meeting end: — Second day of the scheduled FOMC meeting when the statement is expected.
Resolution source
FOMC statement and the official website of the Federal Reserve
AI-generated before close · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Resolution rules at close
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
About this page
A record of how this market resolved. The prices, analysis and rules shown here come from data Brierpoint captured or generated before close.