Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?
Outcome
No
Polymarket resolved this market to No.
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- 1 hour before close
Midpoint prices known at each point; implied probability in cents. Times in UTC.
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk at close — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly specify that resolution is determined by the change in the upper bound of the target federal funds rate range following the October 2026 Federal Open Market Committee meeting. Official Federal Reserve statements and web pages are designated as the direct resolution sources, leaving no room for interpretive discretion. Explicit rounding rules handle non-standard rate changes, and a definitive fallback resolves the market to no change if no statement is published by the conclusion of the following meeting.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
AI-generated before close · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Why it moved before close
No moves were explained in the 7 days before close.
Market explained before close
This market measures whether the Federal Open Market Committee raises the upper bound of the target federal funds rate by 25 basis points following its October 2026 meeting, including fractional changes that round up to 25 bps.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the upper bound of the target federal funds range increases by 25 basis points compared to its level prior to the October 2026 meeting. Any rate change not explicitly listed among standard options is rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points, meaning an increase of 12.5 basis points counts as a 25 basis point increase. The market resolves to No if the rate increases by a different amount, decreases, or remains unchanged. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, the market resolves to the No change bracket. Resolution is determined by the FOMC statement released after the meeting.
Key dates
- FOMC meeting start: — First day of the scheduled FOMC meeting.
- FOMC meeting end: — Scheduled conclusion of the FOMC meeting and statement release.
Resolution source
FOMC statement following the October 2026 meeting
AI-generated before close · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Resolution rules at close
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
About this page
A record of how this market resolved. The prices, analysis and rules shown here come from data Brierpoint captured or generated before close.