Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?
Outcome
No
Polymarket resolved this market to No.
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- 1 hour before close
Midpoint prices known at each point; implied probability in cents. Times in UTC.
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Gotcha risk at close — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly specify that the outcome tracks changes to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve's target federal funds range following the October 27-28, 2026 FOMC meeting. Resolution relies on direct official publications from the Federal Reserve website. A specific rounding rule handles non-standard rate adjustments by rounding up to the nearest 25 basis points, and a straightforward fallback clause resolves to no change if no statement is released before the subsequent meeting.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
AI-generated before close · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Why it moved before close
No moves were explained in the 7 days before close.
Market explained before close
This market measures whether the Federal Open Market Committee increases the upper bound of the target federal funds rate by 50 basis points or more following its October 2026 meeting. Fractional or non-standard rate changes are rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the upper bound of the target federal funds range increases by 50 basis points or more compared to the level prior to the October 2026 FOMC meeting. Rate changes not matching displayed options are rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points. The market resolves to No if the increase is less than 50 basis points, if rates remain unchanged, or if rates are cut. The market resolves to the "No change" bracket if no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting. The deciding source is the FOMC statement released after its meeting, with official Federal Reserve rate publications also cited.
Key dates
- FOMC meeting: — Scheduled meeting dates are October 27-28, 2026.
Resolution source
FOMC's statement and the Federal Reserve official website
AI-generated before close · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Resolution rules at close
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
About this page
A record of how this market resolved. The prices, analysis and rules shown here come from data Brierpoint captured or generated before close.